Why indicators lag

Every indicator is calculated from candles that have already closed. It does not predict, it retells.

Author: I. D. Galtsov

Scheme on candles

Why indicators lag — what it is?

Every indicator is calculated from prices that have already happened. That is not a flaw of a particular formula but a property of the approach itself: you cannot compute the future out of the past.

The more an indicator smooths the data, the later it reacts. The faster it reacts, the more false signals it gives. There is no compromise that removes this contradiction.

The second problem is worse than the first. Indicators are public, everyone's settings are the same, so everyone's signals coincide — and turn into predictable crowd behaviour.

Why indicators lag — how it is built?

Hence the rule: an indicator does not give an entry signal, it only confirms or fails to confirm what is already visible in the structure. Our method uses two of them — RSI for divergence and ATR for scale.

Why indicators lag — common mistakes

Looking for an indicator that does not lag.

Stacking several indicators to "filter out" false signals: they are all calculated from the same prices.

Optimising parameters on history.

Making the decision from the indicator instead of from price.

Related to

Glossary

indicator
a calculation based on price or volume, drawn on the chart.
relative strength index
an oscillator from 0 to 100 showing the balance between the strength of rises and falls.
divergence
price and the indicator pointing in different directions.
average true range
a measure of volatility. Used to size stops and to filter out noise.
lag
a property of every indicator: it is calculated from prices that have already happened and therefore always trails.

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